SEC WEST PREVIEW

Ok, I've had enough of this talk about conference expansion, Miami, Danny Sheridan and everything else that drags down college football. It's time for my prognostication skills to come forward and predict how the West will pan out. I will list my order of finish but will save my Auburn preview for another post.

1. Alabama: unfortunately (haha) the tide have 10 starters on defense returning this year and 6 on offense so they are the odds-on favorites to win the West and possibly the MNC. Questions arise however because of the vacancy of some pretty crucial positions, esp on offense, that bama has to replace. The first is quarterback. A J McCarron and Phillip Sims are vying for the top spot. McCarron filled in (mop up duty) for McElroy last year and has the most experience albeit a handful of snaps more than Sims. Saban has said Sims is an amazing athlete, but as we all know, athlete doesn't necessarily mean great leader/QB. Another is the top wide receiver now that Julio has become rich with the Falcons. Will Marquis Maze be able to handle the load now that there really isn't anyone that will demand a double team? The other is a dominant defensive lineman. Saban said himself that this defense will be different from his other ones because he doesn't have that dominate lineman that can disrupt so much. But, since when do we take anything Saban says to the media without a grain of salt?

I think bama will be favored in all their games and will probably win most if not all of them as well. Saban does not require alot from his QB, so if Richardson stays healthy all year and can carry the majority of the runs (due to injuries), bama will be just fine. If a team is going to beat them, they will have to play a perfect game b/c bama's defense is going to be really tough to score against. I don't really see a big hurdle in the schedule except maybe LSU, but it's at home. Auburn on the road will be tough, but certainly has proven manageable (see 2008/2010). I don't think bama will run the table (wishful thinking maybe?) but will go 11-1 and play in the SEC championship game against a very beatable SEC East team. A 12-1 tide team playing for the national championship is very probable.
My prediction: 12-1 and playing for the MNC.

2. LSU: LSU will have a great defense and if they can get any production out of the QB, LSU will be very very tough to beat. If Jefferson plays at all like a QB and not throw stupid interceptions, I believe the winner of the LSU and bama game wins the West. LSU does have a much tougher schedule than bama (who doesn't this year?) starting with a HUGE game vs. Oregon. LSU plays Auburn and Arkansas at home, but has bama and West Virgina on the road. I think one or two of those games trips them up and keeps them out of Atlanta.
My prediction: 10-2 and possibly playing as an at large team in a BCS bowl.

3. Arkansas: Arkansas' success will largely depend on new QB Tyler Wilson and the newly revamped defense. Arkansas' defense failed them miserably last year (see Auburn game) with the offense failing them less but in a big way (see bama game). Tyler Wilson has the best receiving corp in the SEC and possibly the nation and the running game was something that could have been really good until Knile Davis broke his ankle last week and is out for the year. That is why I put Arkansas third behind LSU. Ronnie Wingo is ok, but he is no Davis. If the defense plays well, Arky could win 10 games. If not, it will be a shootout every game and I'm not sure that Arky could hang like that with bama or LSU. I choose the latter.
My prediction: 10-2 with losses to bama and LSU but beating AU and a good Texas A&M team. Probably playing in Cotton or Capital One bowl.

4. Auburn - coming soon

5. Mississippi State: I'm not buying into Dan Mullen's resurgence of MSU into a team to be reckoned with just yet. He is a good coach but until I see MSU win a bunch, I can't put them high in the SEC West. Jackie Sherrill, largely regarded as the best coach ever at MSU, only won 9 games in his best season (I think that is right, I could look it up but I'm lazy. Nevertheless, it wasn't that many). MSU will be better and may even beat AU, but playing at JHS is tough and AU will be better than most think. With road games at Arky and UGA and playing LSU and bama at home will be too tough... even with a better team.
My prediction: 6-6 with losses to AU, LSU, UGA, USC, UA, Arky. Playing in a lower tier bowl, possibly in B'ham.

6. Mississippi: Ole Miss is just bad. They had Jeromiah Misoli last year and still stunk, mainly because of their defense. They allowed something like 6.1 yards per play which is atrocious. They replace alot of starters, but the schedule helps with the only road games being at Vandy, Fresno (what?), AU, UK and MSU. Home games, however, include BYU, bama, UGA, Arky and LSU. Houston Nutt has his work cut out for him.
My prediction: 4-8 (very generous) and maybe a close Egg Bowl game.